BROKER TALK ABOUT USA PEANUTS

                On March 31, THE USDA reported that as for 2026 U.S. PEANUT ACREAGE FORECAST, GROWERS INTEND TO PLANT 1.67 MILLION ACRES IN 2026, DOWN 14 PERCENT FROM 2025.

                Compared with last year, acreage decreases are expected in 10 out of the 11 estimating states.

In GEORGIA, PLANTED AREA is expected to be down 15 percent from last year to 780,000 acres.

                Planted area decreases of 20,000 acres or more are expected in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas.  Severe weather, high expenses and global uncertainty are hitting farmers from all sides, squeezing them to the breaking point.

                The problem in the southeast is the drought.  Drought conditions remain the worst experienced since 2012. The current drought covers all of Georgia. The existing drought in the southeast, especially in southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama reaches to the Florida panhandle.

                With lower domestic use and exports, peanut ending stocks in 2025/26 are forecast to increase. Shelled edible grade season to date (February) Utilization UP Slightly from Last Year.

                USDA has predicted 2025 PEANUT PRODUCTION at 3,590,000 short tons, an 11% increase over last year. INSPECTIONS have totaled 3,532,521 short tons.

ARGENTINA UPDATE

                Argentina continues in a weather market situation. The peanut digging and harvesting have begun.  Some fields planted with short-cycle and short-intermediate cycle varieties, which benefited from more favorable conditions between mid-December and January, began to be harvested. These lots correspond to the peanuts that will surely produce higher yield and quality of their kernels.

                This differs from those areas where peanuts were severely affected by the stressful conditions of December, January and part of February. The problem in these cases is the extremely low levels of maturity reached to date. The enormous number of dead plants caused by peanut blight (sclerotinia spp.) has led many growers to bring forward the planned date and to begin digging prematurely,  knowing that those peanuts are very immature and that productivity and quality will be poor.

                The recent rains and the low temperatures contribute daily to the increase in the disease (peanut blight) and to the delay the seeds’ maturation process. The rains can also complicate the harvest if combined with saturated soils.

The Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, SAGyP, on March 19, reported that the peanut planted area remains at 412,000 hectares at national level. The peanut planting area for the 2025/26 season in Argentina is around 420,000 hectares, considering the plantings of shellers, in all their forms, and the plantings of independent producers.

In the opinion of GEORGALOS PEANUT WORLD “GPW”, the projected peanut production would be between 1,300,000 and 1,400,000 metric tons of farmers stock peanuts (in-shells basis). The yield potential for the current season is lower than expected.

PEANUT CONTRACTS OPEN IN  SOUTHEAST

                  In March - Peanut buying points are reporting that peanut contracts are now available for the 2026 peanut crop.  Contracts are for runner-type peanuts for $415 per ton.  Tonnage is not limited.  Contract offers for Virginia type is $425 per ton.  Some farmers need contracts to secure financing for the new season.

                   Another contract offer to farmers is a $400 per ton POOL, again for runner type peanuts.  This contract allows farmers to participate in the market, hoping prices might improve and farmers in the pool would share in profits. 

BROKER COMMENTS ON PEANUT MARKET FACTORS –(AI)

                  The market is extremely quiet in all parts of the world.

                Especially the Southeast of the US and also parts of Virginia/Carolinas are experiencing very dry weather. Planting season is a month away. The USDA estimate for the 2026 crop that came out Tuesday: plantings are estimated to be down a surprising 14% and that number could certainly change, if cotton continues its rally.

                Planting season for China is around the corner. Plantings could be up 5 to 10%. Brazil harvesting is underway but delayed due to rainy weather.  Argentina crop is continuing to develop well after the early drought. Heavy rains have fallen lately. Those rains, despite being heavy, are beneficial at this point, but need to stop once harvesting starts. Crop needs more time and sunshine for kernel maturity..

                The US market is basically trading at loan rates levels, regardless if one looks at current or new crop. Lower prices on spot basis on current crop are still possible because of the long positions certain shellers are in, based on current demand.

                New crop prices are unlikely to go down at this point. They have already firmed up some. Should the plantings continue decreasing, we could easily see those prices move up further. The Argentine shellers are trying to push the international market up, but finding some pushback from manufacturers who are seemingly well covered for this year and worried about current demand.

                The war in Iran is creating some big issues on freight rates and fuel surcharges not counting increase in energy cost fueling a spike in fertilizer prices and also cotton (probably because of the rise in prices of polyester). Inflation risks are elevated which could potentially be beneficial for peanut demand.

                The US market continues to be slow and dull. The market almost feels like it’s shutdown and on holidays. Some shellers are in need to move 2025 crop, but buyers continue their wait and see attitude, wanting more data on the demand prior buying any additional coverage for this crop and, if any is needed.  No mention of contracts at buying points.

LEADING MARKETING INDICATORS (As of April, 2026)

2025 Est. Peanut Acreage (+8%)  (Harv)      1,906,000 acres

2025 Est. Peanut Production (3,767 #/ac)   3,590,050 tons

2025 Inspections (April, 2026)                         3,531,822 tons

2025 Peanuts placed in loan (4-1-2026)      2,910,769 tons

2025 Market Loan 2024-2025(4-1-2026)      2,076,919 tons

2025- Redeemed (4-1-2026))                             833,850 tons

2025-26  Domestic Usage (7 Mo.)                  UP – 0.4%

2025-26 Exports (Aug-Jan) (6 Mo)                 UP  + 3.1%

Posted Price (4-6-2026) Runners -$424.68 ton, Spanish - $414.56 ton