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LEADING MARKETING INDICATORS (As of February, 2026) 2025 Est. Peanut Acreage (+8%)(Harv) 1,906,000 acres 2025 Est. Peanut Production (3,767 #/ac) 3,590,050 tons 2025 Inspections (Feb 3, 2026) 3,531,822 tons 2025 Peanuts placed in loan(1-5-2026) 2,880,019 tons 2025 Market Loan 2024-2025(2-3-2026) 2,539,292 tons 2025- Redeemed (2-3-2026)) 340,727 tons 2025-26 Domestic Usage (5 Mo.) DOWN - 4.1% 2025-26 Exports (Aug-Oct) (3 Mo) DOWN - 19.3% Posted Price (2-3-2026) Runners -$424.68 ton, Spanish - $414.56 ton. Valencia and Virginias - $435.00 ARGENTINA Argentina’s 2026 peanut crop faces serious risk due to persistent drought across central-south, southern, and southwestern growing regions. Conditions are critical in key areas such as southern Córdoba, northern La Pampa, and southwestern San Luis, with drought stress now affecting nearly the entire central peanut belt. Short- and medium-cycle varieties have already passed more than half their growing period without proper vegetative development, leading to irreversible yield losses. Many producers now hope for rainfall to secure at least minimal output. Only limited zones in northern and northeastern Córdoba, plus a few scattered areas, received localized rains and show good crop conditions. Without sustained rainfall in the coming months, crop growth will stall, reproductive stages will halt, and production potential will continue to decline. (Reported by Georgalos Peanut World) BRAZILIAN CROP PLANTING IS COMPLETED. CURRENT ESTIMATIONS for AREA DECREASE averaging 30/35. Other sources said that the PEANUT PLANTING AREA decrease is of 25%, and no more than 30 % decrease in area. OVERALL, CROP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA IS PROGRESSING WELL WITH NO WEATHER DELAYS YET. PFMN PEANUT MARKET TALK – Comments from peanut marketers – The market is still on holiday, at least that’s what it feels like! Market continues quiet When a market (and in this case the world market) is oversupplied with peanuts from numerous origins, and demand is weak in most major markets, it doesn’t take much for the market to be quiet. When manufacturers have decent coverage and are uncertain on the demand direction, the easiest thing to do is wait. Now, it is not because a market is oversupplied, and that demand is weak that the market prices can’t go up. Internationally, the farmers are a lot more apt at switching crops then they are in the US. Because of the low peanut prices, we are already seeing huge swings in plantings in Argentina (down 20%) and Brazil (down 30/35%). We will probably see some reduction in plantings as well in the US (5 to 10%). A decline in plantings will put more emphasis on the weather (and already seeing that for Argentina). We are already seeing a rise in prices for Argentine new crop because of current dry weather patterns. One broker commented, “Peanut farmers will be growing this year for the government and not for the market!” PEANUT STOCKS AND PROCESSING REPORT– USDA’s Peanut Stocks and Processing Report shows for the month of December, 2025, the 5th month of the marketing year, peanut stocks in commercial storage totaled 5.51billion pounds equivalent farmer stock, compared to 4.36 billion pounds last year, UP 26.4%. Total – 4.64 billion pounds of farmer stock, UP 26%.. Shelled peanuts farmer stock equivalent totaled 838 million pounds, UP 44.2%, c0mpared to last DEC, Roasted stocks were 39.8 mil lbs., were UP 23.6 %. Total shelled peanut stocks were 630 million pounds, up 44.2%. 595 million pounds were edible grades, UP 45.5% compared to last December. Oil stocks are 34.6 million pounds, UP 21.4%. Edible stocks of shelled peanuts by type, Virginia & Valencia stocks are at 96.2 million pounds, UP 46.6%. Runners were 468 million pounds, UP 49.6% and Spanish totaled 31.5 million lbs, UP 17.1%.. In December, shellers milled 453 million pounds, 4.2 % more than December last year. Commercial processors utilized 181 million pounds of shelled edible peanuts, 4.2% fewer than last December. December government purchases were 1.90 pounds of peanut butter and 51,840 pounds of roasted peanuts. For the 5 months, government purchases totaled 11.458 million pounds of peanut butter and 207,000 lbs of roasted peanuts, down 6%. Stocks and Processing - Raw peanuts in primary products down 4.1% in Aug-Dec compared the same 5 mo. of 2025. Peanut butter usage is surprisingly DOWN 4.1% for the 5 month period. Peanut candy usage is DOWN 2.7% after an 8% December decline in volume. Peanuts in snacks have shown an increase, however after 5 months a 3.6% drop was reported. Government purchases were 2.4 million pounds of peanut butter and 207,000 lbs of roasted peanuts in December. For the year, government purchases totaled 12,152,536 pounds, DOWN 5.7% from the previous year. WORLD PEANUT SITUATION World demand is down everywhere, because consumption of peanuts, peanut products and peanut oil is down. Record world peanut production, for marketing year 2025/2026, with rising quality challenges, and historically low prices. Peanut supply out of 2025 crops, remains abundant from the main origins, and the focus is shifting towards quality and carryover. Manufacturers report good coverage into the first half of 2026. As per Georgalos peanut world’ surveys and opinion, in Brazil origin it is estimated a planted area of around between 270 and 285 thousand hectares in the 2025/2026 peanut Crop, compared to approximately 380 thousand hectares in the previous crop, representing an estimated between 25% and 30%. Reduction in planted area nationwide China and India origins faced similar challenges, with extended and untimely rains, Severely damaging food-grade peanut quality. China new 2025 peanut area increased by 12% and peanut production reached around 19 million mt, up from 16.5 million mt in 2024. Abundant supply of low-quality crushing materials in major producing areas such as Henan and Shandong. Peanuts with normal appearance and flavor are basically unavailable. Those with acceptable appearance generally have darkened color and poor taste, while the rest have sprouting or mold problems. In some areas of Shandong, peanuts planted after wheat harvest (wheat-stubble peanuts) performed slightly better. There should be sufficient supply of edible peanuts from northeast China, but dealers have sufficient funds and not anxious to sell for now. Pre-Chinese new year stocking and production Activity remains unusually weak, raising the possibility that more than 50% of the domestic harvest could remain unsold. Post-cny-historically a significant overhang Chinese export market remains very quiet. Due to high prices against other origins exporters are being challenged by unstable freight market as well as strong Chinese currency. In India, initial expectations of a large crop in Gujarat were offset by unseasonal rains that affected both yield and quality. Data released by the Gujarat government showed that the peanut planted area increased by 30-35%. The final harvest has been smaller than projected, and good-quality arrivals remain limited. Quality remains extremely weak. Low availability of edible-grade peanuts. Plentiful crushing material, given the current supply constraints and continued upward price momentum, India is largely outpriced from global markets. The groundnut market in India remains extremely firm, with strong price movements driven by Tight supply and continued procurement support. Overall exports are estimated to be 25–30 % lower than last year, intensifying competition for quality material, according to Indian reliable sources. India has ample stocks of 2024-crop tj and bold varieties. According to the USDA’s January report, in the US, the peanut planted area was estimated at 1,953,000 thousand acres, up 8 percent from 2024; the area harvested was estimated at 1,906.0 thousand acres (previously 1,901), up 9.4% percent from last year; and peanut production was reduced at 7,179,850 thousand pounds (3,589,925 farmers stock short tons Or 3,256,730 metric tons) on lower yields (previously 7.470.100 thousand pounds), up 11 percent from 2024. The average yield was estimated at 3,767 pounds per acre, up 44 pounds per acre from 2024. |