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PEANUT STOCKS AND PROCESSING REPORT USDA’s Peanut Stocks and Processing Report shows for the month of May 2026, the 10th month of the marketing year, peanut stocks in commercial storage totaled 4.07 billion pounds equivalent farmer stock, compared to 2.54 billion pounds last year, UP 60%. Total – 3.07 billion pounds of farmer stock, UP 57%.. Shelled peanuts farmer stock equivalent totaled 951 million pounds, UP 38.6%, compared to last May. Roasted stocks were 44.0 mil lbs., were UP 4.0 %. Total shelled peanut stocks were 715 million pounds, up 38.6%. 684 million pounds were edible grades, UP 40.1% compared to May last year. Oil stocks are 31.2 million pounds, UP 1.9%. Edible stocks of shelled peanuts by type, Virginia & Valencia stocks are at 131 million pounds, UP 76.5%. Runners were 517 million pounds, UP 238.6% and Spanish totaled 35.1 million lbs, down 2.7%.. In May, shellers milled 461 million pounds, 27.3 % more than May. Commercial processors utilized 218 million pounds of shelled edible peanuts, up 49.1 more than last May. May government purchases were 1.900 million pounds of peanut butter. down 8.2%. For the 10 months, government purchases totaled 21.58 million pounds of peanut butter and 388,800 lbs of roasted peanuts. Stocks and Processing - Raw peanuts in primary products are UP an amazing 6.3% Aug-May compared the same 10 mo. of 2025-26. Peanut butter usage is UP 6.3% for the period, as the market is rebounding, showing a 3% increase in May. Peanut Snacks usage is UP 12.7 and showing a phenomenal 41.7% increase May vs May. Peanut candy is down 1.6%. Peanut market is improving as the industry wide campaign shows “We” can make a difference. PLC PAYMENT IMPORTANT TO FUTURE OF PEANUTS – The average price received by farmers for peanuts are yet to be determined for May, June and July. (See 9 Mo. Posted above) It is early to think about PLC since payments are not made until after October 1. However, with contract prices so low, farmers and bankers are counting on the PLC payments to cover costs. The most recent projected 2026 PLC payment rates shows the projected or final MYA at $.24 per lb., down one cent from last month.($480 per ton). Price Loss Coverage (PLC) PLC program payments are issued when the effective price of a covered commodity is less than the respective effective reference price for that commodity. The effective price equals the higher of the national market year average price (MYA) or the national average loan rate for the covered commodity. The effective reference price is the lesser of 115% of the reference price or an amount equal to the greater of the reference price or 88% of the average of MYA prices from the 5 preceding years, excluding the highest and lowest price. PLC payments are not dependent upon the planting of a covered commodity or planting of the applicable base crop on the farm. PLC payments, if triggered, will be paid on 85% of the farm’s base acres of each covered commodity with a PLC election where the farm has been enrolled. Payment will be issued after the end of the marketing year of the covered commodity, but not before October 1 of the year following the program year. Peanut Base may be increased since, USDA and Farm Service Agency (FSA) announced eligible landowners have from June 1 until Aug. 31, 2026 to review and consider base acre increases on farms enrolled in the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs, as authorized by provisions included in the Working Families Tax Cuts Act. Nationwide, up to 30 million new base acres for all crops can be added by eligible farms. WITH REDUCED ACREAGE- WHAT NEXT? BROKER’S VIEW (AI) Not much activity in the market lately. There is still current crop in the hands of the shellers, but with the potential of a very tight 2026 crop situation and much higher prices on farmerstock, shellers are keeping those goods unless decent prices can be achieved i.e. mid 50’s. As I previously mentioned, shellers will most likely contract the remainder of their decent quality 2025 crop handlings considering the price differential they might have to pay for new crop i.e. about us$ 400.- vs. maybe us $ 500.-. I say maybe us$ 500.- as no one knows what shellers will have to pay for farmerstock and we could see shellers outbidding each other to try to get more volume. Manufacturers on the other hand seem to be well covered through the end of the year. For new crop, pretty much the same story. Manufacturers still do not seem to believe the tight scenario depicted by the shellers. Shellers are probably pretty tight on farmerstock contracted position and don’t know how many tons they will handle, nor do they know what they will have to pay for those additional tons they need to contract. The current market of mid to high 50’s is equivalent to roughly us$ 500.-. Don’t expect those prices to go lower. As I said, I believe the market is pricing perfect growing and harvest conditions. Short of that, prices go higher in a hurry. The supply/demand is complicated and confusing. If one believes that the USDA carryover of 797,000 fst for last year was correct, then we are going to get extremely tight next year. Now, I am in the camp that does not believe that because the market told us it wasn’t right, but of course the market doesn’t tell you what that number was. So, at this point, all I have to base myself on is that USDA carryover. With domestic demand surging to an increase of 6.37%, we now look at having a carryover of just above 1.1 million tons for this year. And that doesn’t account for any forfeitures (which should come from bad quality peanuts as explained in my previous report). So, before we can make assumptions for next year carryover, we need to understand what the USDA carryover is for this year, forfeited 2025 crop quantity and 2026 crop size and quality. The question is: will it be tight or very tight. The USDA projects the carryover for this year at 1.415 million fst which I can’t explain. Looking at the 2027 crop (I know, way to far), cotton could get some support with BACA. The Buying American Cotton Act (BACA) is a legislative initiative aimed at promoting the use of U.S.-grown cotton and supporting the domestic cotton industry. It authorizes transferable tax credits for U.S. cotton products, which can boost demand for domestic cotton and potentially add premiums for growers facing global competition. The act encourages consumers and retailers to purchase cotton products made from U.S.-grown cotton, thereby strengthening the U.S. cotton supply chain and reducing reliance on imports. Regardless, I think we will all face the fact that we will need to pay much higher prices than the loan rate for 2027 crop farmerstock. BACA just might make it more expensive if it goes through. Hereunder is a comparison for April 28 vs. June 23. What a difference two months make. We went from a severe drought with doubts about if and when we could plant the new peanut crop in the Southeast to have plenty, and sometime too much rain. The Delta has also improved a lot. The Virginia/Carolinas have improved some but are still affected by drought conditions. LEADING MARKETING INDICATORS (As of July 1, 2026) 2026 Est. Peanut Acreage -23%) 1,475,000 acres 2026 Est. Peanut Production -23% 2,765,000 tons 2026 Est. Average Yield 3,749 lb/ac 2025-26 Market Loan 2,910,863 tons 2025-26In Loan (7-1-25) 1,283,500 tons 2025-26 Loan Redeemed -sold 1,627,363 tons 2025-26 Domestic Usage (10 Mo.) UP + 6.3 % 2025-26 Exports (Aug-Mar) (8 Mo) UP + 27%% Posted Price (7-1-26) Runners -$424.68 ton, Spanish - $414.56 ton. Valencia and Virginias - $435.00 |