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By Tyron Spearman, with broker assistance. The market continues to be extremely quiet on all fronts. The seemingly slow demand seems to be affecting all parts of the world which to be honest doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. Peanuts are one of the cheapest source of protein in the market, and peanuts are the cheapest nut (despite not being a nut). Really makes one wonder what is happening to our beloved peanut. The US current crop market continues to be at a standstill with sellers needing to sell and buyers well covered and not knowing if what to buy or if they will need to buy before the new crop. The US new crop market continues as well to be at a standstill with buyers not understand the relation between a higher loan rate with consequently higher edible prices and an oversupplied market. Argentina has received beneficial rains lately although not general. Overall, the crop is looking good with a good potential for the crop should the weather continue brining rains through the end of the peanut growing season. Prices on both current and new crop are rising, but demand continues to be slow. I am not quite understanding buyers attitude towards buying as there seem to be only risk in the international market. The prices have already risen from the lows. Brazil has an unbelievable quality crop which would then compete with the Argentine new crop, I see only risks. The Brazilian new crop continues to perform extremely well with near perfect growing conditions with the exceptions of the continuous high temperatures (although not unusual for Brazil). Harvesting has started but quality is still unknown. USA - The US oversupply combined with a slower demand and good manufacturer coverage continues to result in an absolutely dead market with buyers staying on the sideline until such time they have a better view on the demand. Raw peanuts in primary products isdown 3.9% in Aug-Jan compared the same 6 mo. of 2025-26. Peanut butter usage is DOWN 5.2% for the 6-month period, but the market is rebounding,down less than 1% in Jan. Peanut Snacks usage is DOWN 5.0% and showing a10% drop during the month.Peanut candy is down 3.2%. On current crop, buyers are waiting on demand to show them if they will need any additional coverage (scary thought considering that all shellers still have to sell considerable amounts of peanuts). With an oversupply, timing is on their side. Some buyers are covering some new crop not wanting to be naked should there be any weather issues during the summer. Other buyers are probably waiting to see what will happen to the planting estimates of end March. We still believe that the plantings will be reduced by 10%, but possibly even by 15% with the lack of contracting. Unfortunately, 15% (and I would say even 20%) would not change the oversupply that we have in the US. At least not with the help of mother nature or heavy shipments of farmer stock to China. But a big decline for the 2026 crop, could make things certainly interesting for the 2027 crop plantings. We also have to wait to see how many tons end of farmer stock get forfeited and how many tons get bought back 1/for the US market (edible and/or crush) 2/for exports to China. I still feel though that if buyers can buy new crop at loan rate levels, take a good coverage not to take a risk (USA weather risk, China weather risk, lower plantings to name a few). The downside is lot lower than it was for the 2025 crop. For shellers, market prices are still hovering around the 45 to 48 cents levels depending on specs. New crop is $.48- $.50 per lb. For growers, peanut buying points are reporting that peanut contracts are now available for the 2026 peanut crop. Contracts are for runner-type peanuts for $415 per ton. Tonnage is not limited. Contract offers for Virginia type is $425 per ton. Some farmers need contracts to secure financing for the new season. Another contract offer to farmers is a $400 per ton POOL, again for runner type peanuts. This contract allows farmers to participate in the market, hoping prices might improve and farmers in the pool would share in profits. With the cost of production of runner type peanuts over $500 per ton, excluding land, farmers will be signing up for the PLC (Price Loss Coverage) program at FSA. With the new Reference Price of $630 per ton (up from $535 per ton), PLC payments could assist the farmer as the national average price received by producers during the 12 month marketing year is subtracted. A predicted MYA price of $.24 per lb. or $480 per ton deducted from the Reference Price would give $150 per ton. Add the contract ($415 + $150 per ton) and PLC and farmer may survive with $565 per ton. Payment on PLC is limited to 85% and paid in October 2026. LEADING MARKETING INDICATORS (3-10, 2026) 2025 Peanut Acreage (+8%) 1,901,000 acres 2025. Peanut Production (3,767 #/ac) 3,590,000 tons 2025 Inspections (Mar. 9, 2026) 3,532,521 tons 2025 Peanuts placed in loan (3-4-2026) 2,910,804 tons Redeemed (sold) (3-10-2026) 642,935 tons 2025 -26 Domestic Usage (6 Mo.) DOWN - 3.9% 2025-25 Exports (Aug-Dec) (5 Mo) DOWN - 16% Posted Price (3-3-26) Runners -$424.68 ton, Spanish - $414.56 ton. Valencia and Virginias - $435.00 |