BROKER TALK ABOUT USA PEANUTS  - May 1, 2026

• On March 31^st, USDA/NASS estimated that acres planted in peanuts would be down 14.4% from 2025 (1,674,000 vs. 1,953,000 LY).
• At the time of that report December ’26 cotton was $0.67 – since then cotton has been on a steady upward trend, closing yesterday at .8611. This has undoubtedly taken acres away from peanuts over and above where NASS projected.
• A historic drought that has persisted since last August impacted the ability for many to plant dryland peanuts in April, and although the SE has received very beneficial general rainfall the past week to ten days, we are still in a major deficit YTD.  Drought monitor
• Most in the industry feel planted acres will be down 18-20% in the SE (next acres report Tuesday 6/30).
• Medium runners for 2027 deliveries have climbed in price from .48-.49 back in March to mid-.50’s with most shellers withdrawn from the market. The current crop market has also been pulled up by new crop.

“Bull markets ignore bad news, and any good news is reason for a further rally,” so said Michael Platt and that pretty much sums up the cotton market in one sentence for the past month and a half.

            As a result, what looked like a very aggressive projected acres cut in peanuts back on March 30^th now looks like an underestimate. For various reasons the market largely ignored a historic drought that had taken hold of the peanut growing regions, cast a skeptical eye at the 14% reduction in acres, and hit snooze when we saw an uptick in exports to China for Feb and March. While all of that was going on in combination with the run up in cotton and a lack of contracts being offered to growers the peanut market suddenly woke up. Instead of current crop pulling new crop down into the 40’s, the opposite occurred and new crop pulled the current crop market up into the .50’s and offers are hard to come by for 2027 deliveries despite the size and quality of the 2025 crop.

            With so little of the peanut crop planted in April growers were able to pivot to cotton and corn and peanut seed sales slowed. With good rains coming so far in May the immediate relief that was needed is very welcomed. Now as growers plant their crops both shellers and growers seem to be satisfied to wait until we have more information on what the planted acres really are. While we have received good rains, they haven’t been “drought busters” so that still hangs over the market to a degree. Hopefully, we enjoy a good growing season and can harvest yet another quality crop in the fall. Until the 2026 harvest, 2025 inventory is the only sure thing, and shellers are managing it accordingly. Stronger China exports have tightened the market enough that the threat of loan forfeitures has effectively vanished, a stark contrast to the outlook we saw only a few months ago.

            Wait and see seems to be approach that’s being taken by buyers, sellers, and growers. With an adequate carryout from ’25 crop and rains that will help get the crop up it is probably a prudent move. It certainly feels like we’ll be riding a rollercoaster of emotions through the inevitable realities that it will get hot and it will get dry at some point this summer. If we can find some stability in the peanut market and if cotton stays around these levels it would point to a healthier market for growers and more normal crop rotations. You’d be hard pressed to find anyone that would argue that’s a bad thing.

ARGENTINA UPDATE

            The development cycle of the peanut cultivar has ended. The peanuts, in general, did not reach the expected levels of maturity degree. Many lots did not reach 55-60% maturity. The harvested area is very small. The harvested peanuts were already arriving at the buying points with moisture levels below 10%. A cold front from the south, took place. The dry south wind helped to dry more quickly the rows of the peanuts dug. Peanut smut caused damaging effect this year.

A significant increase in yield and production losses per hectare, due to varieties that do not have genetic resistance.

BROKER COMMENTS ON USA – May 1

                        20% planting reduction expeceted in USA and there is general uncertainty in peanut plantings and they could be reduced further than the 14% announced by the USDA. Next USDA acres report will be issued on June 30, 2026. Talking with seed sellers, reduction of peanut acreage

could be 20% and also as high as 30%. Planting peanuts are underway. More rain was enjoyed along the Alabama, Georgia and Florida lines. For some, this is the first rains they have received, so it is time to make a decision. Plant cotton or peanuts? Both prices were below the cost of production. With a lack of subsoil moisture, high input costs, we will need good rain patterns to get average yields.

PEANUT STOCKS AND PROCESSING REPORT

               USDA’s Peanut Stocks and Processing Report shows for the month of March 2026, the 8th month of the marketing year, peanut stocks in commercial storage totaled 4.87 billion pounds equivalent farmer stock, compared to 3.57 billion pounds last year, UP36.4%.  Total – 3.92 billion pounds of farmer stock, UP41%..

            Shelled peanuts farmer stock equivalent totaled 908 million pounds, UP `20.4%, compared to last March.  Roasted stocks were 40.2 mil lbs., were UP 11.0 %.  Total shelled peanut stocks were 683 million pounds, up 20.0%.  656 million pounds were edible grades, UP 23.3% compared to March. Oil stocks are 34.6 million pounds, UP 21.4%.  Edible stocks of shelled peanuts by type, Virginia & Valencia stocks are at 26.5 million pounds, UP 24.8%. Runners were 523 million pounds, UP 25% and Spanish totaled 33 million lbs, down 16.8%.. 

             In March, shellers milled 518 million pounds, 10.4 % more than March.

Commercial processors utilized 208 million pounds of shelled edible peanuts, 4.5more than last March.

            March government purchases were 1.660 million pounds of peanut butter and 25,920 pounds of roasted peanuts, down 24.9%.  For the8 months, government purchases totaled 17,126,250  million pounds of peanut butter and 336,960 lbs of roasted peanuts, down 15.3%.

Stocks and Processing - Raw peanuts in primary products is down 0.8% in Aug-Mar compared the same 8 mo. of 2025-26.  Peanut butter usage is DOWN 1.8% for the 8 month period, but the market is rebounding, showing a 4% increase in March.  Peanut Snacks usage is UP 7.5%nd showing a 3.9% increase for the month. Peanut candy is down 2.0%.  Peanut market needs a boost and the new industry logo and theme are set to be released nationwide on May 18.  Several national retailers are joining the campaign and that should be the spark to get peanuts on the minds of American consumers. 

WORLD PEANUT MARKET OUTLOOK – Broker’s View

            With the first significant frost in a part of the Argentine peanut belt, the development cycle has ended, & the peanuts, in general, did not reach the expected levels of maturity degree currencies revaluation versus the dollar. The revaluation of the real, the peso and the yuan on the supply side with the revaluation of the euro on the demand side, are monetary fundamentals for rising prices in dollar peanut prices are tending to only up direction bullish tendency. There is a high chance of close to 80% that super El Niño will emerge in June/Aug 2026, raising the risk of weather anomalies, particularly of drought in southeast Asia, Australia and South Africa, as well as of  above-normal rainfall in parts of South America. Drought conditions are reported from several regions in Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia, & there is the risk of ongoing below-normal rainfall in coming months if El Nino conditions intensify. In India, forecasts of weaker than normal monsoon rains have raised concern about kharif oilseed production, additional inflationary pressure and rising import requirements of vegetable oils. Weather risks are tightening the market structure. Short- medium term demand & tightening supply dynamics changed by climatic conditions and

geopolitical situation renewed urgency to increase coverage levels amid various origin-specific supply concerns and reduced seller willingness to offer forward supplies.

LEADING MARKETING INDICATORS(As of May, 2026)

2025 Est. Peanut Acreage (+8%)  (Harv)           1,906,000 acres

2025 Est. Peanut Production (3,767 #/ac)   3,590,050 tons

2025 Inspections (April, 2026)                           3,531,822 tons

2025 Peanuts placed in loan (5-15-2026)    2,910,862 tons

2025 Market Loan 2024-2025(5-15-2026)    1,323,001 tons

2025- Redeemed (4-1-2026))                     1,587,862 tons

2025-26  Domestic Usage (8 Mo.)    DOWN – 0.8%

2025-26 Exports (Aug-Jan) (6 Mo)                    UP  + 3.1%