The 2024-25 peanut season will long be remembered as one of the most chaotic and unpredictable years in a row crop farmer’s life.  The unpredictable weather, including two hurricanes tested the plans for a profitable year as proven University recommendations made one ‘think out of the box’ to solve many problems.

                With corn and cotton not profitable, peanut planting had potential for a profit, but could tilt supplies with too many peanuts pushing contract prices lower.  New season got off to a rough start with cold soils, then two weeks of rain, and as numerous bouts of severe weather from late April through June.

                Decisions had to be made on what to plant as time was running out, some were delayed until mid-June, after the crop insurance deadline.  The entire peanut belt was chopped into sections, some with too much rain and areas of drought.  In August, Hurricane Debby hit northeast Florida, Southeast Georgia and South Carolina and flooding damage delaying planting.

                    Consumption updates showed peanut product sales were down about 5% but prices holding steady.  Contract prices for peanuts were relatively low compared to University cost estimates, but cotton and corn were worse. 

                    So, let’s plant peanuts.  USDA/FSA confirmed planted acres at 1,810,000 acres, up 10 percent from last year.  The first production forecast was 6.71 billion pounds (3,354,000 tons), an increase of 14% over last year. 

                    The beginning stocks from last season are about 740,000 for a total 2024 supply of 4,094,000 tons if the estimate is delivered to the warehouses.  Deduct the demand or disappearance including exports, 3,283,000 tons.  The ending stocks this year is estimated at 811,000 tons.  These are the peanuts that fill the pipeline from August til November each year or until new crop is shelled and ready.  With a 200,000 tons usage per month, 4 months will mean the market has a tight supply and prices should improve next year.

                 Just as buying points were gearing up for peanut harvest, already 2-3 weeks late, tropical Storm Helene entered the Big Bend area of Florida. The storm pushed north into Georgia with very heavy rains, gusty winds drifting East of Interstate 75 and continue into Southeast Georgia.  About one third of the Georgia cotton, soybeans, peanuts, pecans and pine trees were pounded with severe winds causing catastrophic conditions.

                 In preparation for the storm, producers are encouraged to document damage and losses before, during, and after cleanup as well as financial records of cleanup, repair, etc., as assistance and crop insurance may take some time.

                With less than 10 percent harvested, growers continued waiting for the peanut fields to dry out so harvest could continue.  West Georgia and Alabama were reporting dry conditions as harvest was picking up. Growers are working with buying points to determine drying capacity and availability of electricity.    

                Early peanut fields need dry weather to keep the situation from deteriorating  Peanuts planted in June also need about two weeks to mature and already, temps are predicted to drop into the 40’s slowing maturity. 

                Numerous peanut farms, buying points and shellers have damaged buildings and equipment.  FSIS reports that 26 buying points did not have power; cannot receive peanuts right after the storm.                 

              Many roads are being cleared sufficiently for trucks, trailers, tractors to harvest and move peanuts to buying points.  Farmers were removing fallen trees from peanut fields before harvest can continue. 

                Projections are that a 10% crop loss impacted by Helene and predict that if growers cannot harvest in a timely manner, we will see a 30% loss in a short period of time in the storm hit area.  Farmers are being urged to avoid areas that had water standing for days and keep separate pivot corners hit by drought as aflatoxin is likely.  

                    The 2023 crop was firm on prices and difficult to get offers, depending on sheller and grade.  Shellers have recently redeemed most loan peanuts as loan moves to market.  Splits were .68 and mediums/jumbos .70 as the trade felt that inventory was short.

                    New crop offers have become hard to confirm with weather damages and unknown production totals. Prices are.57 splits, .58 mediums and .59 jumbos. Buyers sensed  big crop would lower prices. It all comes down to growing conditions and ultimately yields…Time is on everyone’s side really.  Growers, buyers, and shellers can all wait to sell/buy…Ultimately, who wants to hold the risk?             

                    Contract offers to growers has remained at $500-$525 per ton for runner-type, if a farmer needed a guarantee to secure financing.  A few perks included $25 per ton for irrigation, High Oleic and hauling. Virginia type contracts were mostly $550-$600 per ton depending on growing area.

                    Export markets were up 17.55% in volume for the year, 585,789 MT compared to last year’s 498,330 MT.  Domestic markets were down 4.1% in raw shelled usage with in-shells down 5.9%.  Government purchases were up 44% compared to last year buying peanut butter and roasted peanuts.

                    While Congress is working on uniting the House and Senate Farm Bills, another agricultural delegation is proposing a direct payment or bridge appropriation to help farmers survive til the new Farm Bill is ratified.   

                    Unpredictable and chaotic…hang on, it’s got to settle down soon.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                LEADING MARKETING INDICATORS (As of October 10, 2024)

2024 Est. Peanut Acreage (+9%)                1,788,609 acres

2024 Est. Peanut Production (+9.6%)       3,322,783 tons

2023-24 Market Loan                                     2,340,632 tons

2023-24 In Loan (10-29-24)                             13,911  tons

2023 -24 Domestic Usage (12 Mo.)               DOWN – 4.1 %

2023-24 Exports (Aug-Jul) (12 Mo)                     UP + 17.5%