WORLD PEANUT MARKET – What is happening to the peanut market?  Prices continue to drop at the shelled price and farmer stock contracts are non-existent or reduced.   Industry traders report that due to bumper crops in Argentina, Brazil, USA and India, the market is not likely to see a reversal of the low prices for the next two years.  One official estimates that the low price trend could be somewhat reversed, if Argentina and Brazil register a sharp decline in planting areas and if final stocks for the 2025/2026 are reduced.  One broker predicted there would be low prices until the 2026/27 marketing year.

ARGENTINA UPDATE – Both production and exports are expected to reach historic highs.  Acreage was increased 23% and the final stock of the 2024/25 peanut crop increases by 50% to 1.45 MT compared to a final stock of the 2023/24 crop of 0.97 million MT.

A shortage of 38/42 peanut size and an increase in 40/50 sizes and some buyers are reluctant to accept the change.  Due to the large availability, price competition makes the situation a BUYERS’ MARKET.  One official said that a 10% reduction in acreage will not be enough to move the market so the low prices will continue until 2026/27 marketing year.

U.S. PEANUT MARKET – With a 3.6 million ton crop expected, shelled prices have continue to decline.  Raw shelled runner prices were $.64 per pound in January and dropped to $.49 per pound for medium runners this week. One broker noted that the peanut market continues to be dead with buyers thinking 2-3 cents below where peanuts offered. Hearing .48-49 on SE medium runners being offered, but that gets no traction with buyers. It is a buyer’s market and maybe one day soon trading will start!

                  Farmers are experiencing lower prices at the buying points.  Early contracts were $500 per ton for SE runners on half of last year’s production.  Some received a $25 premium per ton for irrigated and $25 per ton for seed production.  Some farmers are still trying to sell un-contracted tonnage that is stored in the loan from last year’s crop.  Loan peanuts have to be sold to the sheller so the peanuts can move to the shelling plant.  Warehouse space will be needed for new crop.  Producers are guaranteed the $355 per ton from loan and the excess tons above contract total will likely be in the $450-$475 per ton or lower.

PLC PAYMENT DISCUSSION - Although small, the PLC payment is likely in October 2025 for the 2024 crop year.  Average price remains estimated at $500 per ton, although the July price received by growers was $.273 or $546 per ton.  The $535 reference price minus $500 average, is $35 with rules that 85% of base acres/yield or $29.75 per ton.  Remember the new $630 per ton reference price applies to the 2025 crop that is now being harvested.  With average prices going down, PLC payments will increase.  If average price is $450 per ton,(Aug-Jul)  PLC payment could be $180 per ton paid in October 2026 again with 85% limit rule.  Base acres will likely be recalculated by that date.

NEED FOR INCREASING DEMAND - U,S. peanut industry is holding an ending stocks of 840,000 tons.  Add a new crop production of 3,633,800 tons predicted and the industry has 4,473,800 tons ready to sell and to operate until next October.  A demand of 3,465,500 tons for domestic and export would leave an excess of 1,008,300 tons. The Ending stocks is not too excessive, the market problem is demand as an export prediction of 725,000 tons is not likely. Domestic market is up only1%. 

USDA ESTIMATE -  2025 PEANUT CROP – Acreage updates were made based on a thorough review of all available data. Planted area for the Nation is estimated at 1.95 million acres, up 1 percent from the previous estimate and up 8 percent from last year. Total harvested area, at 1.90 million acres, is up 1 percent from the previous estimate and is up 8 percent from 2024. Record high harvested acres are expected in Arkansas.  Production is forecast at 7.40 billion pounds, up 15 percent from 2024.

                  Based on conditions as of September 1, the average yield for the United States is forecast at 3,890 pounds per acre, up 222 pounds per acre from 2024. A record high yield is expected in North Carolina. As of August 31, seventy-one percent of the peanut acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, 3 percentage points behind the previous week but 10 percentage points ahead of the same time last year.

PEANUT PRODUCTION REMAINS AT RECORD HIGH LEVEL IN MY2025/26

                    USDA, NASS provided a forecast for the U.S. peanut crop. The MY 2025/26 peanut production is raised by 149 million pounds to a record high 7.4 billion pounds, on higher harvested acreage and higher yield. Peanut area harvested is raised to 1.9 million acres, mainly due to higher acreage in Georgia and Texas. Meanwhile, the national average peanut yield is forecast to be up more than 1 percent from last month to 3,890 pounds per acre.

                    As of September 7, 65 percent of the U.S. peanut crop was in good-to excellent condition, which is above last year’s conditions of 58 percent. Total peanut supplies are forecast at 9.1 billion pounds, up 33 million pounds from last month, as higher production offset the lower carryover stocks from MY 2024/25. 

                    The USDA, NASS’s Peanut Stocks and Processing report provided peanut ending stocks for MY 2024/25 at 1.6 billion pounds, down 116 million pounds from the previous forecast. With record supplies, total peanut use is forecast in MY 2025/26 at a record high—as food use, crush, and exports are all forecast higher compared to the finalized MY 2024/25 distribution.

                    In MY 2025/26, peanut food use is forecast to grow 1 percent from the finalized MY 2024/25 estimate.  Peanut food use in MY 2024/25 finished at 3,175 million pounds, up from MY 2023/24, as lower use for peanut candy is offset by higher peanut snacks and peanut butter. Over the last 10 years, peanut butter consumption has continued to trend higher, while the other consumption categories are lower than the 10-year average   Peanut butter has typically been recognized as a low-cost protein source, while peanut candy and snacks consumption has been static and have been impacted by rising cocoa prices. In MY 2025/26, peanut exports are forecast at 1.5 billion pounds, unchanged this month.

                    Peanut ending stocks for MY 2025/26 are forecast at more than 2 billion pounds, up 30 percent from MY 2024/25. The peanut season average farm price forecast for MY 2025/26 is unchanged at 25.0 cents per pound, but lower than MY 2024/25.

LEADING MARKETING INDICATORS (As of September 18, 2025)

2025 Est. Peanut Acreage (+8%)                 1,901,000 acres

2025 Est. Peanut Production (3,890 #/ac)   3,679,500 tons

2024 Market Loan 2024-2025                      2,439,058 tons

2024- In Loan (9-15-2025))                           249,323 tons

2024 -25 Domestic Usage (12 Mo.)                UP 1%

2024-25 Exports (Aug-May) (10 Mo)        DOWN – 18%